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Tori Kelly - Nobody Love (lead single by Max Martin)

Started by turnaround, January 21, 2015, 01:24:54 PM

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turnaround

And I liked it..


gm33

I finally heard this song. It's absolutely phenomenal! How is this not a bigger hit? Four weeks on the charts and only #74?!
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"I was writing with Max Martin and Johan Shellback who are two of my absolute songwriting heroes, they are just absolute melodic geniuses." - Taylor Alison Swift,  August 2012

Axel


j.fco.morales

Quote from: gm33 on April 01, 2015, 02:41:20 PM
I finally heard this song. It's absolutely phenomenal! How is this not a bigger hit? Four weeks on the charts and only #74?!

Because it's not an instant catch pop song.

melodicmoonlight

Quote from: j.fco.morales on April 01, 2015, 06:01:59 PM
Because it's not an instant catch pop song.

Or because she's generally a brand new artist

j.fco.morales

A good song is the best way to establish yourself nowadays.

It's a good song, but it doesn't grab you right away.

sweetmelody

There are some interesting questions here, so I will attempt to give my two cents.

"Nobody Love" is currently #17 on Top 40 radio, with over 5000 spins. That's a super good position for a new artist. So I would say that it is clearly a radio hit at this point, and it appears it will keep rising in the foreseeable future. It also jumped from #74 to #68 on Hot 100, which is likely due to a bump in radio spins.

In determining a song's success, we have to consider what it means to have a radio hit and a Billboard hit and the difference between the two. Radio simply takes into account how many spins the song is getting per week. Radio is a huge indicator of success and Billboard uses it to calculate chart position. Besides radio, Billboard also takes into account streaming and sales. "Nobody Love" is being driven heavily by it's radio position on the Hot 100, and looking at the numbers, second by streaming and last by sales. There is a certain balance that billboard uses to calculate this formula where a higher charting song will probably sit closer to 40% sales, 35% radio and 25% streaming. Given her position on Top 40 radio, and given that her digital sales are middle of the road, I'd venture to say that #68 on the chart means that it being driven mainly by radio position.

So all of that is to say that her streaming and sales numbers are not great at the moment and that is what's stopping a bigger hit. I would say that because she's a new artist, it's a bit more difficult to have success in the sales department. I think sales these days are being dominated by the more established artists. I think hits for new artists will be driven more by radio and streaming. Remember also that she has a big team behind her with a big budget, and that can be used to get more radio and streaming, but you can't force sales. You can argue that it's because the song isn't that great and if it was better it would be a bigger hit. That is a reasonable argument, but it's not always that simple. I do however think if a song is a true, undeniable #1 smash, you won't look at all these variables as closely and the song will take on a life of its own. I don't think "Nobody Love" is that kind of song, but I think it's a strong debut.

My personal prediction is that this song has a real shot at cracking Top 40 Billboard, but that will depend on two key things: a) how much more money her team will pump into radio and promotion to keep the song going (this is a critical point because sometimes songs in this chart position die because labels don't push them enough thinking they'll survive on their own), and b) how strong her team's strategy is (it's Scooter Braun, so I think there's a lot of smarts there).

Hopefully this gives some of you a little bit more insight and info on the charts. As always, just my opinion and you are welcome to add your thoughts to it.

j.fco.morales

Absolutely agree with you.
We don't have to reduce everything to numbers.

From an artistic point of view, I think this is not working.
I'll give her a chance, though.

sweetmelody

Quote from: j.fco.morales on April 02, 2015, 06:22:37 PM
We don't have to reduce everything to numbers.

Not that I disagree with you, but the music business does. That's just that way it works. Aesthetics and artistry are honestly very low on the "give a shit" scale.

j.fco.morales


sweetmelody

Quote from: j.fco.morales on April 03, 2015, 09:00:00 PM
Yep, I know.
We agree, so we're cool  ;)

We are cool for sure. I wish it was more about the song sometimes, but I do agree that great songs will always have success. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!

Rebecca

#42
Thank you for your detailed analysis Sweetmelody, I agree with you.

I'm sure Scooter Braun will push this song as much as he can. I like the song, it is very catchy but it's hard for new artists sometimes. Hopefully it will do well.

Jules

According to ASCAP there's a new (Benny, watch out ;)) CHEIRON song for Tori's upcoming album:

"Expensive"
(written by Alexander Kronlund / Savan Kotecha / Tori Kelly / Joleen Belle / Lukas Loules / Nataliya Phillips)


There's also a new song, "City Dove", co-written by Ilya. Maybe we're lucky and Max had his hands on the production.